Liverpool Favourites to Retain Premier League Title 2025-2026

Liverpool are tipped to win the Premier League again, with a 28.9% probability according to CIES Football Observatory. Arsenal have an 18.8% chance, Chelsea 16.2%, and Manchester City 14.4%. Manchester United’s chances stand at just 2.6%. Across Europe, Real Madrid (40.6%), Bayern Munich (61.4%), Inter Milan (25.6%), and Paris St-Germain (73%) are the favourites in their leagues.

Going to the 2025-26 season, Liverpool are considered the favourites to win the Premier League again, according to the CIES Football Observatory. The Reds, led by Arne Slot, claimed the 2024-25 title with four games to spare, finishing 10 points ahead of Arsenal. The statistical model gives Liverpool a 28.9% chance of retaining the crown, followed by Arsenal at 18.8% and Chelsea at 16.2%. Manchester City have a 14.4% probability, while Manchester United, who last won in 2012-13, are at just 2.6%.

Across Europe, Celtic lead the Scottish Premiership with a 63.3% chance of repeating their success, with Rangers at 28.9% despite a poor start. In Spain, Real Madrid are tipped at 40.6% to reclaim La Liga, with Barcelona at 29.6%. Germany sees Bayern Munich as clear Bundesliga favourites at 61.4%, ahead of Borussia Dortmund’s 8.8%. Serie A is headed by Inter Milan (25.6%), Juventus (18.2%) and Napoli (17.4%), while Paris St-Germain have a 73% likelihood of winning Ligue 1 again.

The CIES model factors in sporting, economic and demographic data, including passes into the final third and transfer fees. Among 29 leagues analysed, Red Star Belgrade have the highest chance of winning their league at 76.2%. This analysis shows Liverpool and several European clubs remain dominant, but competition across top leagues promises an exciting season ahead.