Liverpool Favourites to Retain Premier League Title 2025-2026

Going to the 2025-26 season, Liverpool are considered the favourites to win the Premier League again, according to the CIES Football Observatory. The Reds, led by Arne Slot, claimed the 2024-25 title with four games to spare, finishing 10 points ahead of Arsenal. The statistical model gives Liverpool a 28.9% chance of retaining the crown, followed by Arsenal at 18.8% and Chelsea at 16.2%. Manchester City have a 14.4% probability, while Manchester United, who last won in 2012-13, are at just 2.6%.

Across Europe, Celtic lead the Scottish Premiership with a 63.3% chance of repeating their success, with Rangers at 28.9% despite a poor start. In Spain, Real Madrid are tipped at 40.6% to reclaim La Liga, with Barcelona at 29.6%. Germany sees Bayern Munich as clear Bundesliga favourites at 61.4%, ahead of Borussia Dortmund’s 8.8%. Serie A is headed by Inter Milan (25.6%), Juventus (18.2%) and Napoli (17.4%), while Paris St-Germain have a 73% likelihood of winning Ligue 1 again.